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Recently, business intelligence company IHS Markit released "2020 Global PV Demand Forecast." According to the latest global photovoltaic (PV) demand outlook for 2020, global solar installations will continue to maintain double-digit growth rates in the next ten years. In 2020, new solar photovoltaic installations worldwide will reach 142GW, an increase of 14% from the previous year.

 

In terms of geographic coverage, photovoltaic growth in the last 10 years has been considerable. In 2010, a total of 10 GW of new installed capacity was added globally. Seven countries have installed capacity of more than 1 GW, most of which are confined to Europe. Ten years later, it is estimated that in 2020, global photovoltaic installations will reach 142 GW, and 43 countries with more than 1 GW Around seven times that of 2010.

IHS Markit related people said that global demand will again show double-digit growth in 2020. Last year, IHS Markit forecasted a 53% increase in solar installed capacity outside China. In this year's forecast, solar installed capacity outside China will continue to grow in double digits.


If the 2010s is a decade of technological innovation, cost reduction, and large subsidy domination, then 2020 will be a new decade with no subsidies, diversification and expansion of global solar installation demand, and continuous influx of participants .

For the foreseeable future, large markets like China will continue to occupy a large share of global installed capacity. However, with the increase of production capacity elsewhere, the dependence of global solar installation growth on the Chinese market will continue to decrease in the next few years. Overall, the overall market share of the top ten solar markets is expected to fall to 73% from 94% in 2010.

 

According to the analysis, China is still the leader of the global market. In the past decade, emerging markets have also emerged in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. However, the market is crucial to the development of the photovoltaic industry, especially in technological innovation, policy development and new business models.


Regional highlights from IHS Markit 2020 global photovoltaic demand forecast:

China: photovoltaic solar panels demand in 2020 will be lower than the historical installed peak of 50GW in 2017. At present, the Chinese market is in the transition phase to the development of unsubsidized solar energy. The fourteenth five-year plan will be announced next year, and there is some uncertainty during the waiting period. The forecast for China ’s new PV installations in 2020 is still maintained at 45-50GW, with industry and commerce accounting for 30%. In the list of parity demonstration projects announced in 2019, 9.2GW is the 2020 task, and the total expected share exceeds 20% .

United States: Installation is expected to increase by 20% in 2020, consolidating the United States' position as the world's second largest market. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York will be the main drivers of US demand growth over the next five years.

Europe: After almost doubling the number of installations in 2019, it is expected that Europe will continue to grow in 2020, an increase of more than 24GW, an increase of 5% over 2019. Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine will be the major PV markets, accounting for 63% of the total EU installations in the coming year.

India: Due to the impact of policy uncertainty and import tariffs on solar cells and modules, installed capacity is expected to grow again after mediocre performance in 2019 and exceed 14GW in 2020.

East Asia: Japan and South Korea will continue to grow steadily in 2020, and households will continue to play an important role.

Australia: Australia ’s residential electricity prices have allowed home photovoltaics to develop very well, and the huge losses caused by the recent wildfires in Australia have not only paid attention to the importance of distributed energy demand, but also emphasized environmental protection and new energy. Importance. It is expected that residential photovoltaics in Australia will grow well in 2020.


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