On January 11, photovoltaic leading Longi Green Energy disclosed an announcement to change the original fund-raising 4.77 billion yuan for the Xi'an Le Ye annual output of 29GW high-efficiency monocrystalline cell project. The project cell process will import the company's self-developed HPBC high-efficiency cell technology.

Industry sources said that as PERC cells achieve popularity and gradually approach the theoretical limit of photoelectric conversion efficiency, TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), HPBC as the representative of the cell technology by the capital market attention. With the rapid iteration of PV cell technology lines, different technology lines will meet in 2023, ushering in white-hot competition.

Different technologies compete on the same stage

According to LONGi Green Energy, the 29GW annual monocrystalline high-efficiency cell project is expected to be completed and accepted and put into full operation in September 2023. The company's self-developed HPBC high-efficiency cell technology is ripe for commercialization on a large scale. At present, the mass production conversion efficiency of HPBC cell products exceeds 25%. The product has the advantages of beautiful appearance, high conversion efficiency, good low light response, low temperature coefficient and high reliability, which can be widely used in various scenarios such as rooftop and ground power plants to meet the market demand of customers for high-efficiency monocrystalline products. According to the strategic planning and operation needs, the company upholds the management philosophy of "no leading, no expansion" and intends to complete the introduction of HPBC high-efficiency cell technology.

According to the company, the current mismatch between monocrystalline cell production capacity and monocrystalline wafer and module production capacity has to a certain extent restricted the achievement of the company's strategic goals.

In early November 2022, LONGi Green Energy first released HPBC products. Now, LONGi Green Energy has disclosed its mass production plan, demonstrating its confidence in the technology.

Since 2022, listed companies such as Trina Solar, Zhonglai and JA Technology have expanded their TOPCon battery capacity. Companies such as Royal Group and MuBang Hi-Tech, on the other hand, have cross-border layout and disclosed expansion plans for 20GW and 10GW TOPCon cell projects respectively.

TOPCon is a tunnelling oxide layer passivation contact solar cell technology based on selective carrier principle, which can retain and utilize the existing P-type cell production equipment to the maximum extent, with high process equipment line compatibility and low mass production difficulty, and can be compatible with the high temperature preparation process line of PERC and N-PERT bifacial cells.

In this context, the industrialization process of TOPCon technology route is faster. According to China Photovoltaic Industry Association statistics, the PERC cell market will account for about 91% in 2021, while HJT and TOPCon together will account for less than 3%. It is expected that by 2025, the combined share of super-efficient cell technology represented by HJT and TOPCon will be close to 40%, and is expected to exceed 75% by 2030.

HJT has received high attention in the capital market, and many listed companies have made efforts to HJT track. 2022 July, King Kong PV announced that in order to further extend the upstream and downstream industry chain, expand the heterojunction PV project, expand production to seek profit growth point, it is intended to invest in the construction of 4.8GW high-efficiency heterojunction cell and module project with the newly established holding subsidiary King Kong Yi De as the implementation body. Data show that from January 24, 2022 to October 28, 2022, the accumulated amount of HJT cell sales contract signed between Wujiang Jingying, the company's holding subsidiary, and REC, the customer, amounted to USD 36,975,600.

In August 2022, Meifei shares said in a survey by institutional investors that the company had made more preparations for the development of HJT industry and enhanced the production capacity of HJT equipment through the fixed-income project. Maewei shares said that the conversion efficiency of HJT cells in the laboratory is already high, and the application requires the introduction of technologies such as double-sided microcrystalline on the client side to improve the conversion efficiency. To drive down the cost of HJT cells, joint efforts from upstream and downstream of the industry chain are needed.

Industry sources said that the HJT battery technology cost reduction route is clear, mainly including reducing equipment investment costs, improve equipment mass production capacity, thin HJT battery production costs. At the same time, through the silicon wafer thinning, saving the amount of silver paste and other programs, can further reduce costs.

There are changes in the market pattern

In the background of listed companies "betting" on different technical routes, which route will stand out in the future, there are still many differences in the market. Industry insiders believe that lower cost, higher efficiency is the direction of evolution of photovoltaic cell technology route, the overall pattern of the photovoltaic industry has not been determined.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued in August 2022 "to accelerate the development of green and low-carbon electric power equipment innovation action plan" proposed to promote TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other crystalline silicon solar cell technology and calcium titanium ore, laminated battery module technology industrialization, to carry out new high-efficiency low-cost photovoltaic cell technology research and application.

Under the impetus of the policy, the process of industrialization of new domestic PV cell technology has been significantly accelerated. According to a research report issued by Huajin Securities, as of early January 2023, TOPCon battery has landed 67GW of production capacity and 409GW of planned capacity to be built; HJT battery has landed 10GW of production capacity and 180GW of planned capacity to be built.

       From the demand side, CICC believes that the demand of PV industry will remain optimistic in 2023, and the phase shortage of batteries and deepening of technology iteration will remain the main theme of the industry. Large-size high-efficiency cell production capacity is still insufficient, and new cells such as TOPCon, HJT, IBC and calcium titanium ore will continue to expand production, which will also bring incremental capacity to the upstream equipment segment.