From the data of global PV installations, 2018 is a time to remember. There are two reasons: First, this year, the global PV installed capacity exceeded the threshold of 100GW for the first time, reaching 102.4GW; Second, the annual growth rate is only 4%, far lower than 2016, 2017, 50%, 30 %.
But the decline in growth rate is more like a brief "rest" before the next stage of growth.
According to Bloomberg's latest forecast, in the next 30 years, solar energy will make a leap in global energy and attract more than 4.2 trillion US dollars of investment.
4.2 trillion dollar opportunity
Each year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) analyzes and aggregates the energy situation of each country to form a New Energy Outlook (NEO) report.
"New Energy Outlook 2019" (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook 2019") shows that since 2010, the cost of solar energy, wind energy and batteries has been declining.
The cost reduction of solar, wind and battery since 2010
One of the results of this trend is that in about two-thirds of the world's regions, the addition of power capacity, optoelectronics and wind power are the lowest cost options, and these two industries will also attract a large amount of investment.
Between 2018 and 2050, global electricity demand will rise by 62%. To meet demand, global demand for electricity is three times higher, which will attract $13.3 trillion in new investment for the energy industry.
Of this $13.3 trillion, 83% goes to clean energy, of which $5.3 trillion goes to wind and $4.2 trillion goes to solar. In addition, the grid expansion and battery industry will attract $11.4 trillion and $840 billion in investments, respectively.
83% of the 13.3 trillion US dollars of investment flows to carbon-free energy
Investment in wind and solar energy will reach $5.3 trillion and $4.2 trillion, respectively.
According to BNEF's analysis of comprehensive technology trends and energy costs, by 2050, the share of coal power in global energy will fall from the current 37% to 12%, and oil will basically disappear. Wind and light energy will rise from the current 7% to 48% in 2050, while the proportion of hydro, natural gas and nuclear energy will fluctuate by 1%.
Matthias Kimmel, principal analyst of Outlook 2019, said that compared with the "Outlook" in recent years, it can be concluded that the manufacturing costs of photovoltaic modules, turbines and lithium batteries still have a significant room for decline. For every doubling of global installed capacity, their costs will fall by 28%, 14% and 18% respectively.
By 2030, the price of electricity produced, stored and transported by the three will be lower than the current price of thermal power.
It can be clearly seen that it will continue to grow in the next 30 years.
Among the changes mentioned above, China has played an indispensable role.
In a recent article, the Financial Times said that without China's development of wind and solar energy in the past 10 years, the production of renewable energy will not increase, and the transition to a low-carbon economy will hardly begin.
Solar and wind energy can currently compete with other forms of energy without any subsidies, and to a large extent is the result of large-scale production of turbines and panels by Chinese companies. According to data from investment bank Lazard, wind power costs have fallen by 69% in the past 10 years, while solar power costs have fallen by 88%.
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Tianjin Sino Sources Tech Co Ltd